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Now showing 1 - 5 of 7

Recent Submissions

The impact of climate change and geopolitical tensions on long-term interest rates
(Banco Central de Chile, 2026-10)
Albagli, Elias
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Bauducco, Sofía
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Carlomagno, Guillermo
;
Gonzales, Luis E.
;
Wlasiuk, Juan Marcos
Over the past four decades, estimates of the neutral real interest rate (r*) appear to have trended downward across both advanced and emerging economies in a broadly synchronized manner. This secular downturn has been documented using a wide range of methodologies, including reduced-form trend extraction, semi-structural models, and asset-price-based measures, and appears robust across countries and estimation approaches. A large literature has emerged to explain this phenomenon, emphasizing structural forces that have persistently shifted the global saving–investment balance.
Long-run interest rates: past, present and future
(Banco Central de Chile, 2026-10)
Mian, Atif
“It is utterly impossible [...] for the rich to save as much as they have been trying to save, and save anything that is worth saving.” Marriner Eccles, former Chair of the US Federal Reserve This paper provides a structural explanation for the persistent global rise in debt and declining long-run interest rates since the 1980s. Figure 1 shows the long-run evolution of two key financial variables in the post-WWII period for the United States: the total credit-to-GDP ratio and 10-year real interest rate, as published by the Cleveland Federal Reserve.1 Total credit includes both public debt issued by the federal government and private debt taken on by households and the nonfinancial corporate sector. After remaining relatively stable in the post-WWII years, total debt relative to GDP almost doubled since 1980. The situation is remarkably similar across the world as well, with global debt relative to GDP accelerating sharply since 1980.2 The large rise in debt globally after the 1980s was accompanied by a fall in interest rates—that is, the price of debt. The ten-year real safe rate declined steadily from a high of around six percentage points in the early 1980s to zero in the post-2008 era, before rising in recent years.
Monetary policy and banking stability
(Banco Central del Chile, 2026-10)
Peydró, José-Luis
What are the effects of monetary policy rates for banking stability? For example, when inflation started rising in 2022, central banks raised monetary policy rates substantially, with a more than 400 basis points increase in the United States and in the euro area. As of April 2026, monetary rates in the United States are still high and significantly higher than before 2022. This monetary policy action of raising interest rates implies crucial trade-offs, not only between monetary tightening and the risk of an economic recession, which has been extensively analyzed in policy circles and in academic studies, but also between tighter monetary policy conditions and the risk of financial instability, in particular, the risk of a banking crisis.
Fiscal policy and real interest rates
(Banco Central de Chile, 2026-10)
Bianchi, Francesco
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Faccini, Renato
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Melosi, Leonardo
Monetary policy in the United States has been shown to have large effects on foreign economies and financial cycles. This analysis typically focuses on business-cycle fluctuations. Bianchi and others (2022) show that because of structural changes in the Fed’s implicit inflation target and level of activism, US monetary policy can also account for decades-long movements in real interest rates and asset prices. However, Bianchi and others (2022) leave the reasons for these shifts in the tolerable level of inflation unexplained. In this paper, we conjecture that, at least in part, these changes can be explained by the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and study the implications of such interaction for low-frequency movements in real interest rates.
Three theories of natural rate dynamics
(Banco Central de Chile, 2026-10)
Nuño, Galo
The natural rate of interest, or r*, is generally defined as the risk free real interest rate that would prevail in the absence of nominal rigidities and business cycle fluctuations. The natural rate concept dates back at least to Wicksell (1898). This concept is important in macroeconomics for several reasons. First, it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the long run. Second, it plays an important role in asset pricing, as the long segment of the (real) yield curve is the sum of the natural rate and the term premium. Third, it matters for debt-sustainability analysis.